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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."